Statistically, what is likely to happen?

Hi Carole, I hope you can answer my question. Obviously I appreciate that all cycles are different, but if I could get my head around statistically what is likely to happen after ER, that will help me to see a way forward.

A bit of background... Our donor is 20 years old. She had 20 follicles a few weeks ago but she had a cyst so we delayed a month. The following month she had 17 follicles. She had a scan yesterday (7 days prior to ER) and she has 10-12 good sized follicles and 2 smaller ones. As we are doing gender selection, I can't help feeling that 10-12 is not enough. I understand that 16 is the cut-off for 'normal', so 10-12 is less than normal. I am considering cancelling.

So this is my question... if we have 10-12 eggs, how many (statistically) would fertilise, then how many would be abnormal? I can do the 50:50 gender calculation myself :-)

Thanks very much indeed!

Hi Crystal Tipps,
Please see my previous post on "Egg count mathematics" http://fertilitylabinsider.com/?s=egg+count+mathematics for a general answer to your question, based on my experience from my lab. Unfortunately, if you really want a "statistical" answer to your question , you need to ask the lab you are working with for THEIR results with patients just like you. It's always a gamble -you can have anywhere between 0-100% fertilization and between 0-100% development at each step of the way. I can't give you an answer you will be happy with. It will be expensive and the outcome is never guaranteed. You have to decide what your appetite for risk is. Interestingly, I get way more questions from gender-selection patients about the probability of success than from infertility patients who are more likely to take a chance on 10-12 eggs, actually a pretty typical egg retrieval number for IVF. Best Wishes. Carole

Thanks Carole, I just quickly read your article and it's very interesting. I'm going back for a proper read and to look at the pictures, but wanted to say thanks for posting.